Pavement Prediction Performance Models and Relation with Traffic Fatalities and Injuries

This paper presents some results of a study, which aimed at modelling pavement evolution by different methods. In a first part, a database was constituted with data collected on French roads in the last decades. The database contains skid resistance values (Sideway Force Coefficient measured by SCRIM/Sideway force Coefficient Routine Investigation Machine), macrotexture values (Mean Profile Depth), traffic data, pavement characteristics and age. In a second part, non-linear regressions were used in view of obtaining some evolution laws. Then, a short bibliographical study allowed the comparison of the results obtained in this study with other pavement prediction performance models proposed in former European studies. In a last part, the texture data were compared to accidents data in view of finding a relation between them. The difficulty of safety studies lies in the fact that skid resistance data rarely fit to accident data considering the fact that skid resistance is measured each year, each two years or each three years depending on the survey policy applied by the authorities. The evolution laws were used in view of evaluating the skid resistance and macrotexture when accidents occurred. Thus, threshold values for skid resistance and macrotexture were proposed when risk strongly increased.